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MARKET SENTIMENT
"The pain makes the front page of the N.Y. Times."
"When the [Investor's Intelligence] bull-bear ratio shows a definite majority of bears with less than 40 percent bulls, you are in the safety sentiment zone."
"I regard the third and one of the 'meanest' indicators to be one of the best: mutual fund withdrawals."
"A reading of 40 in the VIX - a measure of pure panic in the marketplace - indicates a market bottom." (NOTE: THE VIX HAS SHIFTED TO A MUCH LOWER RANGE SINCE CRAMER PUBLISHED HIS LIST, SO 20+ IS PROBABLY A BETTER PANIC READING NOW)
"Only extremes matter. At every negative extreme ... we have gotten a terrific opportunity to buy stocks ... The oscillator indicator, unlike the VIX, is something that produces almost instant results."
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This chart shows a typical business cycle and the points at which various economic sectors tend to outperform the broader market. Please note that the chart should be used for illustrative purposes only. The chart is a historical representation of stock performance movements relative to the business cycle and is not intended to convey any current or future economic outlook. (NOTE: CIRCLED SECTORS BASED ON CURRENT IBD INDUSTRY SUB-GROUP RANKINGS FOR 6-MONTH PRICE PERFORMANCE)
Source: 2000, Standard and Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill Companies, based on a study analyzing the differences in market returns of 90 Industries vs the S&P 500 during 10 complete economic cycles from December 1945 - December 1995.
